Polymarket Market Operations Pitch
Built independently as research for Polymarket's Market Operations Analyst role. A dispute analysis pipeline across 906 disputed markets, three launch-ready market proposals, and a 23-creator golf vertical pitch with direct alignment to Polymarket's Parti.com livestreaming partnership.
dispute analysis pipeline
fetch_disputes.py pulls all 906 disputed markets from the Polymarket Gamma API. classify_disputes.py sends each dispute to Claude and classifies it by reason. analyze_rules.py extracts language patterns by category. The output is a pattern library and a draft_ruleset.py tool: describe a market idea, get a dispute-proof ruleset draft.906 disputes by reason
| Reason | Count | % | Key Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| ambiguous-rules | 571 | 63% | "any", "consensus", vague thresholds, undefined terms |
| too-early | 171 | 19% | Resolution before the event could definitively conclude |
| wrong-source | 103 | 11% | Source inaccessible, wrong, or too vague |
| factual-error | 60 | 7% | Bad premise baked into the question itself |
market proposals 3 ready to launch
📺 Internet Invitational 2026
Creator Golf · Content Milestone
Will the Internet Invitational 2026 generate 30M+ combined YouTube views within 30 days of the final episode's release? Baseline: 27M+ in 2025. Dispute risk: low across all four categories.
⛳ Grant Horvat PGA Tour 2026
Sports · Culture Crossover
Will Grant Horvat compete in at least one official PGA Tour or DP World Tour stroke-play event before January 1, 2027? He declined two Tour exemptions in 2025 citing media rights. Genuinely uncertain. 3.4M invested followers.
⚖️ CFTC Guidance 2026
Regulatory · Policy
Will the CFTC publish formal guidance specifically addressing retail prediction market platforms before January 1, 2027? Polymarket's own traders have direct skin in this outcome.
Every resolution criterion is written directly against the failure modes above. Qualifying conditions are enumerated, exclusions are listed, and a single authoritative source is named with a backup fallback.
golf creator vertical 23 creators · 25M+ reach
The golf creator audience skews young, male, and already bets. ForePlay discusses sports odds every episode. The Internet Invitational drew 200K+ live viewers and $1M in prizes. The PGA Tour Creator Classic is now a sanctioned event. Zero current Polymarket coverage.
1M+ reach
Good Good, Bob Does Sports, Bryson DeChambeau, Rick Shiels, Grant Horvat, Full Send (NELK)
200K–1M
ForePlay, Bryan Bros, Peter Finch, Micah Morris, Luke Kwon, Golf Girl Games, Taco, Kyle Berkshire, Martin Borgmeier
Rising
Good Good Pros, Good Good Girls, The Lads, Josh Kelly, BustaJack, Sam Heung-Min, Tooms, Ben Kruper
Each creator profile includes verified follower counts, market ideas, and dispute risk notes.
parti.com partnership alignment
| Parti Feature | Golf Creator Fit |
|---|---|
| Streamers pin markets above live chat | Creator tournaments (Internet Invitational, Creator Classic) stream live to hundreds of thousands. Markets are directly relevant to what is on screen |
| Earn Program: creators share trading fees | Tier 1 creators (Horvat, Full Send, Bryson, Rick Shiels) have direct financial incentive to pin and promote their own markets |
| Boutique Culture Markets | All three market proposals fit this category: creator-ecosystem events, not traditional sports or politics |
| Audience already engaged in live discussion | Golf creator fans debate outcomes in real time. ForePlay discusses sports odds every episode. DraftKings overlap is high. Friction to trade on Polymarket is near zero |
This research predates the Parti announcement. The partnership confirmed the thesis, it did not inspire it.
ruleset audit
ambiguous threshold
original
Will inflation return to the Fed's 2% target before January 1, 2025?
why it generated a dispute
"Return to the 2% target" was never defined. Headline CPI? PCE? One month or a trailing average? The market resolved NO but traders who saw a single month near 2% argued YES. No specific measure or duration threshold meant any reading near 2% was disputable.
fixed ruleset
Resolves YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 12-month headline CPI change of 2.0% or lower in any monthly release published before January 1, 2025, as shown on bls.gov/cpi. A single qualifying monthly release is sufficient. PCE, core CPI, and trimmed-mean measures do not count.
what changed
Single authoritative source named. Exact measure specified. Duration defined. Threshold is a hard number.
undefined source
original
Will Elon Musk announce he is leaving Tesla before July 1, 2025?
why it generated a dispute
The market resolved NO. One trader argued a post on X saying "stepping back from day-to-day" counted. Another argued only an SEC 8-K filing qualified. Three plausible readings of the same facts, zero guidance in the resolution criteria.
fixed ruleset
Resolves YES if Musk formally announces departure from the CEO role via: (1) an SEC Form 8-K on sec.gov, (2) a Tesla IR press release on ir.tesla.com, or (3) a post on @elonmusk using the words resign, stepping down, or leaving Tesla in the context of his CEO role. Social posts not using one of those exact phrases do not qualify. Media reports do not qualify.
what changed
Three qualifying sources enumerated. Exact language required for social media. Third-party reports explicitly excluded.
premature resolution
original
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LIX? Resolution date: February 9, 2025.
why it generated a dispute
Super Bowl LIX was played on February 9. The resolution bot triggered at 11:59 PM ET while the game was still in overtime in some time zones and before the official final score was confirmed in the NFL results system.
fixed ruleset
Resolves YES if the Kansas City Chiefs are declared the winner of Super Bowl LIX by the NFL. Resolution is based on the final score as posted on nfl.com/super-bowl following the conclusion of all regulation and overtime play. This market will not resolve until the final score is officially confirmed on nfl.com, regardless of game clock.
what changed
Resolution tied to official source confirmation, not a calendar timestamp. Explicit clause prevents early trigger. Postponement handled with N/A condition.
links
Full Research — Notion
pitch deck · creator roster · market proposals · portfolio · dispute pattern library
chapmansgit/PolyMarket
fetch_disputes.py · classify_disputes.py · analyze_rules.py · draft_ruleset.py · inspect_uma.py