COVID-19 Migration Patterns in Charlotte
Study of how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted immigration and emigration in Charlotte, NC, using Census and NCDHHS data from 2019 to 2022.
overview
Group research project examining whether COVID-19 had a measurable effect on who was moving in and out of Charlotte. Charlotte had posted positive migration deltas for over a decade. We tracked five variables across a four-year window to isolate what the pandemic actually changed: population growth rate, COVID case counts, mortality rate, birth rate, and net migratory delta.
methodology
Pulled population data from the US Census Bureau and per-year birth/death CSV files from the NC Department of Health and Human Services. Compiled into a pandas dataframe and calculated a migratory delta by subtracting the birth/death delta from total population delta each year, isolating migration from natural population change. COVID case counts came from NCDHHS monthly reports; mortality from the NC State Center for Health Statistics. Visualized results as a V-curve chart with migratory delta and birth/death contribution plotted as separate series.
data
2019: births vs deaths +6,218 | migrants +7,523 | total +13,741. 2020: births vs deaths +5,336 | migrants -16,517 | total -11,181. 2021: births vs deaths +4,897 | migrants -1,935 | total +2,962. 2022: births vs deaths +5,610 | migrants +12,401 | total +18,011.
key findings
Charlotte's migratory delta collapsed from +7,523 in 2019 to -16,517 in 2020, the first negative figure in over 30 years, entirely driven by migration rather than births or deaths. 2021 remained negative at -1,935 before rebounding to +12,401 in 2022, overshooting pre-pandemic levels. The 2022 surge likely reflects delayed moves from people who waited out the pandemic. Housing followed: homes priced $300K-$1M rose from 53,200 to 67,300 units between 2019 and 2021 as compressed supply met surging demand.